Tag

"Liberals"

Oct

Back to the Future: Returning Liberal MPs

By: Sean Casey Category: Insights Tags: #elxn42, Election 2015, Federal Election, Federal Election 2015, Liberals

When any political party has a significant increase in seats following an election, there is always some concern expressed about how the newcomers will adjust to the new legislature, especially if that party forms government (see: Alberta NDP 2015). In the final days of the 2015 federal election campaign, the Liberal Party is poised to have a significant increase in …

Oct

Possible Outcome Scenarios: Liberals Win

By: Ann Marie Category: Insights Tags: #elxn42, 2015 Federal Election, Election 2015, Federal Election, Federal Election 2015, Justin Trudeau, Liberals

In yesterday’s piece, we looked at what it would mean for Canada if the Conservatives win a minority. Today we look at the potential outcome scenarios associated with a Liberal party win. Today’s polls tell us that a Liberal minority government is a very real possibility on October 19. This is a big change from what the polls were telling …

John Duncan – Minister of State and Chief Government Whip – Courtenay-Alberni BC

In the four elections Duncan has contested under the Conservative banner in Vancouver Island North, he has won three and lost one, with the greatest margin of victory being 3%. With the NDP currently leading all of the polling projections on the Island by a substantial margin, and the riding redistribution putting Duncan into an area where he was not the incumbent, this race might not end up being close in the end.

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


30.3	48.8

Bernard Valcourt – Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development – Madawaska-Restigouche NB

The 2011 election result brought this riding back into the Conservative fold after being a Liberal stronghold since 2000. With the most recent riding projections putting the former leader of the New Brunswick Progressive Conservatives over 20% behind, it will be an uphill fight for Valcourt to keep the riding blue.

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


27.3	47.6

Chris Alexander – Minister of Citizenship and Immigration – Ajax ON

Alexander, who won a Liberal-held seat that stretched back to 2004 in the last election, was involved in one of the tightest races in the Greater Toronto Area last time around. It doesn’t get any easier, as he moves to a new riding, and faces an old foe, in three-term former Liberal MP Mark Holland.

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


35	44.2

Joe Oliver – Minister of Finance – Eglinton-Lawrence ON

Since Confederation, only two sitting Finance Ministers have ever lost their seats during a general election. Running in a seat that had elected a Liberal in every election since 1979 until Oliver won it in 2011, he will be in tough against a popular local Liberal candidate, Marco Mendicino, and a former provincial NDP Finance Minister, Andrew Thomson

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


36.9	39.6

Greg Rickford – Minister of Natural Resources – Kenora ON

This race in Northern Ontario has three of the high profile candidates with a current Minister (Rickford) taking on a former Minister (Liberal Bob Nault) and a former provincial party leader (Howard Hampton). In recent weeks, the Liberals have been slipping behind, but don’t be surprised if it ends up being a tight three-way finish.

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


35.8	37.1

Kerry-Lynne Findlay – Minister of National Revenue – Delta BC

Findlay moves into the new riding of Delta for this election, which has more NDP support that her previous riding of Delta-Richmond East. This will end up being a close three-way race that could go in any direction on October 19^th.

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


31.1	29.9	32.3

Gail Shea – Minister of Fisheries and Oceans – Egmont PE

Shea, a two-term MP, is the only Conservative with a seat on Prince Edward Island. She has a strong profile in the region, however could end up being a victim of dropping Tory support in Atlantic Canada.

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


37.3	43.4

Alice Wong – Minister of State (Seniors) – Richmond Centre BC

With the downturn in Conservative fortunes in British Columbia, Wong is facing an increased challenge from the Liberals in a riding that has the largest Chinese population in all of Canada. The fact that she had a 40% cushion to work with, based on 2011 redistributed results, should work in her favour come election day.

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


39.3	31.6

Leona Aglukkaq – Minister of the Environment – Nunavut

Another long-held Liberal riding the Grits are looking to retake, Aglukkaq is facing a strong challenge from former Territorial MLA Hunter Tootoo. She has been trending ahead in recent polling projections, and in such a vast riding, a strong GOTV effort will be required to ensure Aglukkaq retains the seat

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


38.8	36

Ed Holder – Minister of State (Science and Technology) – London West ON

London West served as a solid Liberal territory since riding was formed back in 1968, only switching allegiances during the Mulroney years, until Holder won the seat in 2008. Recent riding polling projections still show a slight lead for Holder, however with strong challenges from both the Liberals and NDP, there is little room for error.

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection


35.7	31.1	30.5

James Rajotte

Edmonton—Leduc
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 2000-2015

Leon Benoit

Vegreville—Wainwright
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 1993-2015

Massimo Pacetti

Saint-Léonard – Saint Michel
Party: Independent
Tenure: 1999-2015

Scott Andrews

Avalon
Party: Independent
Tenure: 2009-2015

Francine Raynault

Joilette
Party: NDP
Tenure: 2011-2015

Marc-André Morin

Laurentides-Labelle
Party: NDP
Tenure: 2011-2015

Pierre Jacob

Brome-Missisquoi
Party: NDP
Tenure: 2011-2015

Tyrone Benskin

Jeanne-Le Ber
Party: NDP
Tenure: 2011-2015

Christian Paradis

Mégantic-L’Érable
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 2006-2015

Peter MacKay

Central Nova
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 1997-2015

Shelly Glover

Saint Boniface
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 2009-2015

Gerry Byrne

Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte
Party: Liberal
Tenure: 1996-2015

Dick Harris

Riding: Cariboo—Prince George
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 22

Gerald Keddy

Riding: South Shore—St. Margarets
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

Greg J. Kerr

Riding: West Nova
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Yvon Godin

Riding: Acadie—Bathurst
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 18

Mike Allen

Riding: Tobique—Mactaquac
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Claude Patry

Riding: Jonquière – Alma
Party: BQ
Years of Service: 4

Sana Hassainia

Riding: Verchères – Les Patriotes
Party: Independent
Years of Service: 4

Irwin Cotler

Riding: Jonquière – Alma
Party: Liberal
Years of Service: 16

André Bellevance

Riding: Richmond—Arthabaska
Party: Independent
Years of Service: 15

Marie-Claude Morin

Riding: Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 4

Alexandrine Latendresse

Riding: Louis-Saint-Laurent
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 7

Tarik Brahmi

Riding: Saint-Jean
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 4

Dean Delmastro (Resigned)

Riding: Peterborough
Party: Independent
Years of Service: 9

Joe Comartin

Riding: Windsor—Tecumseh
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 18

Maurice Vellacott

Riding: Saskatoon – Wanuskewin
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

Ed Komarnicki

Riding: Souris—Moose Mountain
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Ray Boughen

Riding: Palliser
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 7

Diane Ablonczy

Riding: Calgary – Nose Hill
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 22

LaVar Payne

Riding: Medicine Hat
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 7

Lise St-Denis

Riding: Saint-Maurice—Champlain
Party: Liberal
Years of Service: 7

Joe Preston

Riding: Elgin—Middlesex—London
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Frank Valeriote

Riding: Guelph
Party: Liberal
Years of Service: 7

Barry Devolin

Riding: Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 22

Chris Charlton

Riding: Hamilton Mountain
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 18

Gordon O'Connor

Riding: Carleton – Mississippi Mills
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Ted Hsu

Riding: Kingston and the Islands
Party: Liberal
Years of Service: 4

John Baird

Riding: Ottawa West – Nepean
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Rick Norlock

Riding: Northumberland–Quinte West
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 15

Gary Schellenberger

Riding: Perth—Wellington
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

Dean Del Mastro (Resigned)

Riding: Peterborough
Party: Independent
Years of Service: 9

Pat Davidson

Riding: Sarnia-Lambton
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Glenn Thibeault (Resigned)

Riding: Sudbury
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 7

Joe Comartin

Riding: Windsor Tecumseh
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 18

Rod Bruinooge

Riding: Winnipeg South
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Joy Smith

Riding: Kildonan—St. Paul
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Garry Breitkreuz

Riding: Yorkton-Melville
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 22

Brian Storseth

Riding: Westlock-St.Paul
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Peter Goldring

Riding: Edmonton East
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

Laurie Hawn

Riding: Edmonton Center
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Rob Anders

Riding: Calgary West
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

James Lunney

Riding: Nanaimo – Cowichan
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 15

Jean Crowder

MP Name: Jean Crowder
Riding: Nanaimo – Cowichan
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 11

Colin Mayes

Riding: Okanagan – Shuswap
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Randy Kamp

Riding: Pitt Meadows – Maple Ridge – Mission
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Alex Atamanenko

Riding: British Columbia Southern Interior
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 11

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Russ Hiebert

Riding: South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Libby Davies

Tag

"Liberals"

Back to the Future: Returning Liberal MPs

Possible Outcome Scenarios: Liberals Win

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

30.3

48.8

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

27.3

47.6

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

35

44.2

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

36.9

39.6

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

35.8

37.1

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

31.1

29.9

32.3

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

37.3

43.4

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

39.3

31.6

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

38.8

36

August 27 ThreeHundredEight Projection

35.7

31.1

30.5

Edmonton—Leduc Party: Conservative Tenure: 2000-2015

Vegreville—Wainwright Party: Conservative Tenure: 1993-2015

Saint-Léonard – Saint Michel Party: Independent Tenure: 1999-2015

Avalon Party: Independent Tenure: 2009-2015

Joilette Party: NDP Tenure: 2011-2015

Laurentides-Labelle Party: NDP Tenure: 2011-2015

Brome-Missisquoi Party: NDP Tenure: 2011-2015

Jeanne-Le Ber Party: NDP Tenure: 2011-2015

Mégantic-L’Érable Party: Conservative Tenure: 2006-2015

Central Nova Party: Conservative Tenure: 1997-2015

Saint Boniface Party: Conservative Tenure: 2009-2015

Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte Party: Liberal Tenure: 1996-2015

Riding: Cariboo—Prince George Party: Conservative Years of Service: 22

Riding: South Shore—St. Margarets Party: Conservative Years of Service: 18

Riding: West Nova Party: Conservative Years of Service: 9

Riding: Acadie—Bathurst Party: NDP Years of Service: 18

Riding: Tobique—Mactaquac Party: Conservative Years of Service: 11

Riding: Jonquière – Alma Party: BQ Years of Service: 4

Riding: Verchères – Les Patriotes Party: Independent Years of Service: 4

Riding: Jonquière – Alma Party: Liberal Years of Service: 16

Riding: Richmond—Arthabaska Party: Independent Years of Service: 15

Riding: Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot Party: NDP Years of Service: 4

Riding: Louis-Saint-Laurent Party: NDP Years of Service: 7

Riding: Saint-Jean Party: NDP Years of Service: 4

Riding: Peterborough Party: Independent Years of Service: 9

Riding: Windsor—Tecumseh Party: NDP Years of Service: 18

Riding: Saskatoon – Wanuskewin Party: Conservative Years of Service: 18

Riding: Souris—Moose Mountain Party: Conservative Years of Service: 11

Riding: Palliser Party: Conservative Years of Service: 7

Riding: Calgary – Nose Hill Party: Conservative Years of Service: 22

Riding: Medicine Hat Party: Conservative Years of Service: 7

Riding: Saint-Maurice—Champlain Party: Liberal Years of Service: 7

Riding: Elgin—Middlesex—London Party: Conservative Years of Service: 11

Riding: Guelph Party: Liberal Years of Service: 7

Riding: Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Party: Conservative Years of Service: 22

Riding: Hamilton Mountain Party: NDP Years of Service: 18

Riding: Carleton – Mississippi Mills Party: Conservative Years of Service: 11

Riding: Kingston and the Islands Party: Liberal Years of Service: 4

Riding: Ottawa West – Nepean Party: Conservative Years of Service: 9

Riding: Northumberland–Quinte West Party: Conservative Years of Service: 15

Riding: Perth—Wellington Party: Conservative Years of Service: 18

Riding: Peterborough Party: Independent Years of Service: 9

Riding: Sarnia-Lambton Party: Conservative Years of Service: 9

Riding: Sudbury Party: NDP Years of Service: 7

Edmonton—Leduc
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 2000-2015

Vegreville—Wainwright
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 1993-2015

Saint-Léonard – Saint Michel
Party: Independent
Tenure: 1999-2015

Avalon
Party: Independent
Tenure: 2009-2015

Joilette
Party: NDP
Tenure: 2011-2015

Laurentides-Labelle
Party: NDP
Tenure: 2011-2015

Brome-Missisquoi
Party: NDP
Tenure: 2011-2015

Jeanne-Le Ber
Party: NDP
Tenure: 2011-2015

Mégantic-L’Érable
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 2006-2015

Central Nova
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 1997-2015

Saint Boniface
Party: Conservative
Tenure: 2009-2015

Humber-St.Barbe-Baie Verte
Party: Liberal
Tenure: 1996-2015

Riding: Cariboo—Prince George
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 22

Riding: South Shore—St. Margarets
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

Riding: West Nova
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Riding: Acadie—Bathurst
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 18

Riding: Tobique—Mactaquac
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Riding: Jonquière – Alma
Party: BQ
Years of Service: 4

Riding: Verchères – Les Patriotes
Party: Independent
Years of Service: 4

Riding: Jonquière – Alma
Party: Liberal
Years of Service: 16

Riding: Richmond—Arthabaska
Party: Independent
Years of Service: 15

Riding: Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 4

Riding: Louis-Saint-Laurent
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 7

Riding: Saint-Jean
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 4

Riding: Peterborough
Party: Independent
Years of Service: 9

Riding: Windsor—Tecumseh
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 18

Riding: Saskatoon – Wanuskewin
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

Riding: Souris—Moose Mountain
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Riding: Palliser
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 7

Riding: Calgary – Nose Hill
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 22

Riding: Medicine Hat
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 7

Riding: Saint-Maurice—Champlain
Party: Liberal
Years of Service: 7

Riding: Elgin—Middlesex—London
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Riding: Guelph
Party: Liberal
Years of Service: 7

Riding: Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 22

Riding: Hamilton Mountain
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 18

Riding: Carleton – Mississippi Mills
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Riding: Kingston and the Islands
Party: Liberal
Years of Service: 4

Riding: Ottawa West – Nepean
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Riding: Northumberland–Quinte West
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 15

Riding: Perth—Wellington
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

Riding: Peterborough
Party: Independent
Years of Service: 9

Riding: Sarnia-Lambton
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Riding: Sudbury
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 7

Riding: Windsor Tecumseh
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 18

Riding: Winnipeg South
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Riding: Kildonan—St. Paul
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Riding: Yorkton-Melville
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 22

Riding: Westlock-St.Paul
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Riding: Edmonton East
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

Riding: Edmonton Center
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Riding: Calgary West
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 18

Riding: Nanaimo – Cowichan
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 15

MP Name: Jean Crowder
Riding: Nanaimo – Cowichan
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 11

Riding: Okanagan – Shuswap
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 9

Riding: Pitt Meadows – Maple Ridge – Mission
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Riding: British Columbia Southern Interior
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 11

Riding: South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Party: Conservative
Years of Service: 11

Riding: Vancouver East
Party: NDP
Years of Service: 18